All about exit polls

What are exit polls?

Elections are some of the most consequential and significant events in society. Every election night, TV broadcasts nationwide try to keep up as votes pile in and candidates inch closer to taking office and changing history forever. However, votes need to be cast and tallied, and winners are only determined hours, or even days after voting first begins. How are so many outlets able to keep up with results in spite of receiving information at a delayed rate? The answer: exit polls. What exactly are exit polls? Exit polls are polls taken of voters as they leave polling stations. This is an efficient method for major news sources to gauge a candidate’s popularity in a certain state, and make educated guesses as to who may be in the lead. 

How can exit polls help?

Pollsters typically divide the population into multiple groups based on key characteristics, such as gender, age, and race. A combination of this data along with local and statewide demographics allow pollsters to find trends among voters and come to conclusions about how the population may be leaning. This is typically how major news outlets are able to “call” states for a certain candidate, predicting that they received enough of the vote to have won the popular vote within the state. Since tallying the entire state’s vote and determining a winner takes too long, TV broadcasts tend to rely on polling data to inform viewers before an official decision is made. 

Fairness and ethics of exit polls

While exit polls are traditionally regarded as one of the most useful and effective methods of forecasting and data gathering, they also have their pitfalls. A notable downside to exit polls is that many news networks may broadcast exit polling data very early into election day, which has the potential to influence voters who are yet to cast a ballot. Furthermore, it is imperative to gather the consent of all of those who are polled, and collect data fairly, by not polling in a manner that has the potential to skew data or show bias. Fair and accurate polling is never easy, but is extremely useful when done correctly. 

Reliability and effectiveness

While exit polling is regarded as one of the most effective methods of predicting election results, it also has its pitfalls. Exit polling can potentially include bias in a number of ways which could compromise the accuracy of the forecasts. In some cases, pollsters are more or less encouraged to survey certain people. In others, people may be more or less inclined to respond to a poll, and may be encouraged to respond in a certain way. However, good polling accounts for all of these factors and many others, and allows for precise predictions and a good sense of voting trends. Furthermore, while exit polls tend to be very useful for reporting voting data, they require a large sample size and lots of diversity to be considered fair for large populations (especially an entire state). Samples must exceed thousands and thousands of participants in order to be considered a good measure of popularity between candidates. 

Statistics of exit polls

Once thousands of participants are included in polling data, they are split up in order to form correlations. Participants will fall into different categories based on a number of factors, including their race, age, gender and location. Their responses are used to predict results for the categories they fall into. Using demographic numbers across the region or state allows for pollsters to calculate voting trends. For example, the responses of a 20 year old black man in Savannah, Georgia will affect predictions, based on what part of the population is of the same race, age, gender, and location as him. (Example: Montana 2020 President Exit Polls from CNN).