Can We Fix Overtime in the NFL?

If you've ever watched a thrilling NFL game go into overtime only to have it end on a single drive, you’re not alone in wondering, “Wait, that’s it?” For years, football’s overtime rules have sparked debates, particularly in the NFL, where high-stakes games are often decided in a blink. The tension of extra time builds anticipation — but the way overtime is decided doesn’t always seem fair, leaving many fans, players, and analysts questioning whether the rules truly ensure that both teams have an equal shot at winning.

In this post, we’ll examine how NFL overtime rules have evolved, why some fans and players remain dissatisfied, and delve into several proposals for improving the system, all backed by data and real-world implications.

The Problem with “Sudden Death” Overtime

For decades, NFL overtime was straightforward: the first team to score won, whether it was a touchdown or a field goal. On the surface, this made sense. It was fast, decisive, and kept things simple. However, as with most seemingly fair systems, this method of overtime created significant problems, especially in terms of fairness.

The core issue with the old “sudden death” rule was the coin toss. The team that won the toss often had a clear advantage. If they received the ball first and scored a touchdown, the game ended immediately. The opposing team never even had a chance to touch the ball. This outcome was particularly frustrating in playoff games where one team could play a stellar 60 minutes, only to lose after a single coin toss dictated their fate.

One of the most high-profile examples of the unfairness of this system came in the 2019 AFC Championship Game, where the Kansas City Chiefs, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading a potent offense, lost to the New England Patriots without even having the chance to possess the ball in overtime. This prompted widespread calls for change, and the league finally responded.

How the Rules Have Evolved

In 2010, the NFL made a significant change to its overtime rules, but only for playoff games. Under the new system, if the team receiving the ball first scores a touchdown on their opening drive, the game ends immediately. If they score a field goal instead, the other team is given an opportunity to possess the ball and either tie the game or win with a touchdown of their own. If both teams score field goals, it becomes sudden death, with the next team to score winning the game.

This modification made the game more fair by allowing the second team to have a shot if the first team only scored a field goal. However, a key issue remained: if the first team scored a touchdown, the game was over, and the second team never got a chance to possess the ball. This still left room for criticism. In fact, over the following decade, teams that won the coin toss and received the ball first went on to win the game more than 50% of the time, according to league statistics.

In response to another controversial playoff game in 2022 — a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round — the NFL decided to make another rule change. Now, in postseason games, both teams are guaranteed at least one possession, regardless of what happens on the first drive. While the regular-season rules remain unchanged, this modification was a direct response to the unfairness that had been exposed in previous high-profile games.

Proposals for Fixing Overtime — and the Data Behind Them

While the recent changes to the overtime rules have certainly been a step forward, the debate is far from settled. There are still many who argue that more can be done to ensure fairness and excitement during overtime. Below, we’ll explore several of the most talked-about proposals for overtime, looking at what data and research say about each approach.

1. Guaranteed Possession for Both Teams (All Games)

One solution that has gained significant traction, particularly after the 2022 changes, is guaranteeing each team a possession regardless of what happens on the first drive. This approach mirrors the current playoff rules, which have been lauded by many fans and players for providing a more balanced opportunity for both teams.

Data from the 2022 rule change suggests that games in which both teams have a possession in overtime are less likely to feel anticlimactic or unfair. Research into NFL games shows that this structure provides a more balanced opportunity to decide the game based on both teams' performances. However, there are concerns about the impact this could have on regular-season games, especially as the league tries to keep game times manageable. Longer overtime periods could add up over the course of the season, potentially leading to player fatigue and increased risk of injuries.

2. “Spot and Choose” Format

Another proposed solution that brings a strategic twist to overtime is the “Spot and Choose” system. In this format, one team selects the yard line to start from, and the other team then decides whether they want to play offense or defense. This method brings an element of game theory into play, requiring teams to balance risk and reward. If the first team picks a difficult spot — say, the 10-yard line — the second team must decide whether the challenge of defending from that position is worth it, or if they’d rather have the ball on offense.

This format has been tested in some youth and college football leagues, and early feedback suggests that it promotes strategic depth and a more engaging brand of football. From a fairness perspective, this approach reduces the power of the coin toss and adds a layer of decision-making that could help level the playing field. The downside, however, is that it can feel like a significant departure from traditional NFL overtime, and it could take some getting used to for both players and fans.

3. College-Style Overtime

The college football overtime system is another popular suggestion for the NFL. In this system, each team starts with the ball at the opponent's 25-yard line, and both teams get an equal number of possessions. If the game remains tied after both teams have had a possession, the game continues in additional overtime rounds, with each team starting at the opponent’s 25-yard line again.

The key advantage of this format is that it guarantees each team an equal opportunity to score. Fans are often treated to back-and-forth drama as offenses try to outpace each other, making it one of the most thrilling aspects of college football. However, there are notable drawbacks. For one, this system significantly alters the flow of the game and removes field position strategy, which is central to NFL play. Some critics argue that it feels more like a shootout than traditional football and doesn’t reflect the challenges of managing a full field.

4. Full-Period Overtime (10 or 15 Minutes)

Another proposed solution is to simply extend the overtime period to its natural conclusion — a full 10- or 15-minute period of football. This is how many other sports, such as soccer and basketball, handle overtime: each team gets a full opportunity to play within the game’s normal structure.

Data from sports like basketball, where full overtime periods are common, show that while they add excitement and reduce the luck factor of a coin toss, they also increase the likelihood of injuries and lengthen the time spent on the field, which could be problematic for NFL teams, especially late in the season when players are fatigued. Nonetheless, this system is appealing because it eliminates the randomness of the coin toss and allows the best team to emerge over a sustained period of play.

The Bottom Line: Striving for a Fairer and More Exciting Outcome

Ultimately, the NFL has made progress in improving the fairness of overtime, particularly with the recent rule changes in the postseason. However, data and research show that there is still room for improvement. Whether it’s guaranteeing both teams a possession, experimenting with “spot and choose,” or revisiting the full-period overtime format, it’s clear that fans and analysts want a system that feels earned — not one decided by a flip of a coin. As the league continues to evaluate and refine its rules, finding a balance between fairness, excitement, and the integrity of the game will be key.