This formula predicted every NFL MVP

Year after year, the NFL MVP award is highly contested and debated by fans and pundits alike. Criteria may change from season to season, whether it be to reward the player who was the most accurate, more talented or had the most unique skills. Over the years, the award has become increasingly biased towards quarterbacks, and a QB has won every MVP since 2012. However, would it be shocking to believe that there was a formula that could accurately predict which quarterback won the league’s most prestigious honor with extremely high accuracy? I present to you, the NFL MVP Score, which has perfectly predicted the winner every year, from 1987 to 2023 (only in years when QBs won). However, in a shocking turn of events, the formula failed for the first time in decades this year, as it predicted Lamar Jackson to capture the award. Instead, Josh Allen was named MVP. So, what is the formula, and why has it been so accurate? And why did it make a mistake this year?

I experimented with a number of variables to find the perfect metric for this MVP Score. I initially calculated using only wins, passing and rushing yards, passing and rushing touchdowns, and turnovers. However, it felt as though something was missing, and I was consistently messing up certain years. Finally, I found the missing piece of the puzzle. Passer rating. Using the formula of [0.7*RTG + 0.015*pass yards + 0.035*rush yards + 1.25*pass tds + 1.5*rush tds - 1.5* int + 10*games won] perfectly produces the league’s MVP nearly every single year.